Publications
(with Boreum Kwak and Alexander Kriwoluzky) Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, 2026, https://doi.org/10.1111/obes.70074 Abstract: Exploiting the heteroskedasticity of the changes in short-term and long-term interest rates and exchange rates around the FOMC announcement, we identify three structural monetary policy …
Is There an Information Channel of Monetary Policy? Read more »
(with Christoph Schult and Anna Solms) IWH Discussion Paper 4/2026 Abstract: Many countries and regions remain below the level of economic activity of the world’s most advanced economies. Some countries form growth clubs, some are stuck in the middle-income trap, …
Growth Clubs and Regional Economic Convergence in Germany Read more »
(together with Boris Kozyrev), IWH Discussion Paper 6/2024 Abstract: In this study, we analyzed the forecasting and nowcasting performance of a generalized regression neural network (GRNN). We provide evidence from Monte Carlo simulations for the relative forecast performance of GRNN …
(together with Christian Dreger and Marius Fourné), IWH Discussion Paper 7/2022 Abstract: Since the onset of globalisation, production activities have become increasingly fragmented and organised in global value chains (GVC). These networks facilitate trade in intermediaries across industrial sectors and …
Globalization, Productivity, and Labor Compensation Read more »
(together with Hans-Ulrich Brautzsch), Journal of Economic Structures 10, Article 11, 2021. Abstract: We use the World Input–Output Database (WIOD) combined with regional sectoral employment data to estimate the potential regional employment effects of international trade barriers. We study the …
Potential International Employment Effects of a No-Deal Brexit Read more »
(together with Alexander Kriwoluzky and Boreum Kwak), IWH Discussion Paper 17/2020 Abstract: We disentangle the effects of monetary policy announcements on real economic variables into an interest rate shock component and a central bank information shock component. We identify both …
Exchange Rates and the Information Channel of Monetary Policy Read more »
(together with Yaz Gulnur Moradoglu) IWH Online 3/2020, 17.06.2020 Abstract: The Corona shutdown increases the probability of corporate bankruptcy. An analysis based on corporate financial statements from 2014 to 2018 reveals that in the United Kingdom, 73% of shutdown firms …
(together with Stefan Kooths, Claus Michelsen, Torsten Schmidt and Timo Wollmershäuser) Wirtschafsdienst 100(4), 2020, 254-258 Abstract: According to the leading German economic research institutes, the German economy is experiencing a drastic slump as a result of the corona pandemic. In …
Economy in Shock – Financial Policy is Holding Up Read more »
IWH Discussion Paper 4/2020, April 09, 2020 Abstract: In this paper, a simple integrated model for the joint assessment of epidemic and economic dynamics is developed. The model can be used to discuss mitigation policies like shutdown and testing. Since …
Integrated Assessment of Epidemic and Economic Dynamics Read more »
(together with Stefan Gießler and Katja Heinisch), Journal of Economics and Statistics 241(1), 2021, 1-18. Abstract: We analyze whether, and since when, East and West German business cycles are synchronised. We investigate real GDP, unemployment rates and survey data as …
(Since When) Are East and West German Business Cycles Synchronised? Read more »