(Since When) Are East and West German Business Cycles Synchronised?
(together with Stefan Gießler and Katja Heinisch), Journal of Economics and Statistics, forthcoming.
Abstract: We analyze whether, and since when, East and West German business cycles are synchronised. We investigate real GDP, unemployment rates and survey data as business cycle indicators and we employ several empirical methods. Overall, we find that the regional business cycles have synchronised over time. GDP-based indicators and survey data show a higher degree of synchronisation than the indicators based on unemployment rates. However, synchronisation among East and West German business cycles seems to have become weaker again recently.
Full text: pdf (IWH Discussion Paper 7/2019)