Upturn Loses Momentum – World Economic Climate Grows Harsher

(together with Roland Döhrn, Claus Michelsen, Stefan Kooths and Timo Wollmershäuser), Wirtschaftsdienst 98(10), 2018, 718-721.

Abstract: The economic upturn in Germany is entering its sixth year but is losing momentum due to both demand and supply side factors. On the one hand, Germany’s key sales markets have weakened in line with the slowdown in world trade. On the other hand, a growing number of firms face production side bottlenecks, especially in terms of labour and sourcing intermediate goods. This coincides with problems in the automotive industry related to the introduction of the new World Harmonised Light Vehicle Test Procedure (WLTP), which has affected gross domestic product (GDP) growth due to the branch’s economic weight. These adjustment problems, however, should be overcome over the course of the winter. Fiscal stimuli will also take effect as of the beginning of 2019. After 1.7 % growth this year, GDP will increase at rates of 1.9 % in 2019 and 1.8 % in 2020.

Full text (in German): Wirtschaftsdienst

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