Category: Discussion Papers

Discussion Papers

(Since When) Are East and West German Business Cycles Synchronised?

(together with Stefan Gießler und Katja Heinisch), IWH Discussion Paper 7/2019 Abstract: This paper analyses whether and since when East and West German business cycles are synchronised. We investigate real GDP, unemployment rates and survey data as business cycle indicators

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Potential International Employment Effects of a Hard Brexit

(together with Hans-Ulrich Brautzsch) IWH Discussion Paper 4/2019. Abstract We use the World Input Output Database (WIOD) to estimate the potential employment effects of a hard Brexit in 43 countries. In line with other studies we assume that imports from

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Expectation Formation, Financial Frictions, and Forecasting Performance of Dynamic Stochastic General Equilibrium Models

(with Christoph Schult) Historical Social Research 44(2), 2019 and IWH Discussion Paper 15/2018 Abstract: In this paper, we document the forecasting performance of estimated basic dynamic stochastic general equilibrium (DSGE) models and compare this to extended versions which consider alternative

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Sovereign Stress, Banking Stress, and the Monetary Transmission Mechanism in the Euro Area

IWH Discussion Paper 3/2018 (together with Jan-Christopher Scherer) Abstract: In this paper, we investigate to what extend sovereign stress and banking stress have contributed to this increase in the level and in the heterogeneity of nonfinancial firms’ refinancing costs in

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The Effects of Fiscal Policy in an Estimated DSGE Model – The Case of the German Stimulus Packages During the Great Recession

Macroeconomic Dynamics, 2018 and IWH Discussion Paper 34/2017 (together with Andrej Drygalla and Konstantin Kiesel). Abstract: In this paper, we analyse the effects of the stimulus packages adopted by the German government during the Great Recession. We employ a standard

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Employment Effects of Introducing a Minimum Wage: The Case of Germany

IWH Discussion Paper 28/2017 (together with Felix Pohle) Abstract: This paper contributes to the empirical literature on the employment effects of minimum wages. We analysed the introduction of a statutory minimum wage in Germany in 2015 exploiting cross-sectional variation of

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Inflation Dynamics During the Financial Crisis in Europe: Cross-sectional Identification of Long-run Inflation Expectations

IWH Discussion Paper 10/2017 (togehter with Geraldine Dany-Knedlik) Abstract: We investigate drivers of Euro area inflation dynamics using a panel of regional Phillips curves and identify long-run inflation expectations by exploiting the crosssectional dimension of the data. Our approach simultaneously

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Global Food Prices and Business Cycle Dynamics in an Emerging Market Economy

(together with Sushanta Mallick), IWH Discussion Paper 15/2015 Abstract: This paper investigates a perception in the political debates as to what extent poor countries are affected by price movements in the global commodity markets. To test this perception, we use

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Do We Need New Modelling Approaches in Macroeconomics?

(together with Claudia M. Buch), in: Nowotny, E, Ritzberger-Grünwald, D., Backé, P.: Financial Cycles and the Real Economy. Lessons for CESEE Countries, Edward Elgar, 2014 (and: IWH Discussion Paper 8/2014) Abstract: The economic and financial crisis that emerged in 2008

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Efficiency in the UK Commercial Property Market: A Long-run Perspective

(together with Steven Devaney and Rainer Schulz), IWH Discussion Paper 15/2012 Abstract: Informationally efficient prices are a necessary requirement for optimal resource allocation in the real estate market. Prices are informationally efficient if they reflect buildings’ benefit to marginal buyers,

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