Author: Oliver Holtemöller

(together with Joao Claudio and Katja Heinisch), Empirical Economics, forthcoming Abstract: Economic forecasts are an important element of rational economic policy both on the federal and on the local or regional level. Solid budgetary plans for government expenditures and revenues …

Nowcasting East German GDP growth: a MIDAS approach Read More »

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(together with Katja Heinisch and Christoph Schult), IWH Discussion Paper 16/2019 Abstract: In the fight against global warming, the reduction of greenhouse gas emissions is a major objective. In particular, a decrease in electricity generation by coal could contribute to …

Power Generation and Structural Change: Quantifying Economic Effects of the Coal Phase-out in Germany Read More »

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(together with Stefan Gießler und Katja Heinisch), IWH Discussion Paper 7/2019 Abstract: This paper analyses whether and since when East and West German business cycles are synchronised. We investigate real GDP, unemployment rates and survey data as business cycle indicators …

(Since When) Are East and West German Business Cycles Synchronised? Read More »

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(together with Hans-Ulrich Brautzsch) IWH Discussion Paper 4/2019. Abstract We use the World Input Output Database (WIOD) to estimate the potential employment effects of a hard Brexit in 43 countries. In line with other studies we assume that imports from …

Potential International Employment Effects of a Hard Brexit Read More »

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(together with Tobias Knedlik and Axel Lindner), Intereconomics 53(6), 2018, 316-319. Abstract: The intention for the Italian government to stimulate business activity via large increases in government spending is not in line with the stabilisation of the public debt ratio. …

On the Risk of a Sovereign Debt Crisis in Italy Read More »

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(together with Roland Döhrn, Claus Michelsen, Stefan Kooths and Timo Wollmershäuser), Wirtschaftsdienst 98(10), 2018, 718-721. Abstract: The economic upturn in Germany is entering its sixth year but is losing momentum due to both demand and supply side factors. On the …

Upturn Loses Momentum – World Economic Climate Grows Harsher Read More »

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(with Christoph Schult) Historical Social Research 44(2), 2019 and IWH Discussion Paper 15/2018 Abstract: In this paper, we document the forecasting performance of estimated basic dynamic stochastic general equilibrium (DSGE) models and compare this to extended versions which consider alternative …

Expectation Formation, Financial Frictions, and Forecasting Performance of Dynamic Stochastic General Equilibrium Models Read More »

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IWH Discussion Paper 3/2018 (together with Jan-Christopher Scherer) Abstract: In this paper, we investigate to what extend sovereign stress and banking stress have contributed to this increase in the level and in the heterogeneity of nonfinancial firms’ refinancing costs in …

Sovereign Stress, Banking Stress, and the Monetary Transmission Mechanism in the Euro Area Read More »

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Macroeconomic Dynamics, 2018 and IWH Discussion Paper 34/2017 (together with Andrej Drygalla and Konstantin Kiesel). Abstract: In this paper, we analyse the effects of the stimulus packages adopted by the German government during the Great Recession. We employ a standard …

The Effects of Fiscal Policy in an Estimated DSGE Model – The Case of the German Stimulus Packages During the Great Recession Read More »

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(Ed.) Baden-Baden: Nomos, 270 pages Abstract: ‘How Can We Boost Competition in the Services Sector?’ is a key question in the process of creating a more effi-cient economic environment in Germany. This book contains a collection of conference contributions on …

How Can We Boost Competition in the Services Sector? Read More »

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