Author: Oliver Holtemöller

(together with Stefan Gießler and Katja Heinisch), Journal of Economics and Statistics, forthcoming. Abstract: We analyze whether, and since when, East and West German business cycles are synchronised. We investigate real GDP, unemployment rates and survey data as business cycle …

(Since When) Are East and West German Business Cycles Synchronised? Read More »

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(together with Pao-Yu Oei, Hauke Hermann, Philipp Herpich, Benjamin, Lünenbürger and Christoph Schult), Energy – The International Journal, Volume 196, 2020, 117004. Abstract: The present study examines the consequences of the planned coal phase-out in Germany according to various phase-out …

Coal Phase-out in Germany – Implications and Policies for Affected Regions Read More »

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(together with Joao Claudio and Katja Heinisch), Empirical Economics, forthcoming Abstract: Economic forecasts are an important element of rational economic policy both on the federal and on the local or regional level. Solid budgetary plans for government expenditures and revenues …

Nowcasting East German GDP growth: a MIDAS approach Read More »

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(together with Felix Pohle) Economic Modelling, forthcoming and IWH Discussion Paper 28/2017 Abstract: Income inequality has been a major concern of economic policy makers for several years. Can minimum wages help to mitigate inequality? In 2015, the German government introduced …

Employment Effects of Introducing a Minimum Wage: The Case of Germany Read More »

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(together with Katja Heinisch and Christoph Schult), IWH Discussion Paper 16/2019 Abstract: In the fight against global warming, the reduction of greenhouse gas emissions is a major objective. In particular, a decrease in electricity generation by coal could contribute to …

Power Generation and Structural Change: Quantifying Economic Effects of the Coal Phase-out in Germany Read More »

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(together with Hans-Ulrich Brautzsch) IWH Discussion Paper 4/2019. Abstract We use the World Input Output Database (WIOD) to estimate the potential employment effects of a hard Brexit in 43 countries. In line with other studies we assume that imports from …

Potential International Employment Effects of a Hard Brexit Read More »

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(together with Tobias Knedlik and Axel Lindner), Intereconomics 53(6), 2018, 316-319. Abstract: The intention for the Italian government to stimulate business activity via large increases in government spending is not in line with the stabilisation of the public debt ratio. …

On the Risk of a Sovereign Debt Crisis in Italy Read More »

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(together with Roland Döhrn, Claus Michelsen, Stefan Kooths and Timo Wollmershäuser), Wirtschaftsdienst 98(10), 2018, 718-721. Abstract: The economic upturn in Germany is entering its sixth year but is losing momentum due to both demand and supply side factors. On the …

Upturn Loses Momentum – World Economic Climate Grows Harsher Read More »

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(with Christoph Schult) Historical Social Research 44(2), 2019 and IWH Discussion Paper 15/2018 Abstract: In this paper, we document the forecasting performance of estimated basic dynamic stochastic general equilibrium (DSGE) models and compare this to extended versions which consider alternative …

Expectation Formation, Financial Frictions, and Forecasting Performance of Dynamic Stochastic General Equilibrium Models Read More »

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IWH Discussion Paper 3/2018 (together with Jan-Christopher Scherer) Abstract: In this paper, we investigate to what extend sovereign stress and banking stress have contributed to this increase in the level and in the heterogeneity of nonfinancial firms’ refinancing costs in …

Sovereign Stress, Banking Stress, and the Monetary Transmission Mechanism in the Euro Area Read More »

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